The world energy and food prices will keep rising till the end of 2024 and reach "historically high levels" because of the rf's war against Ukraine.
This is pointed out in the "Commodity Markets Outlook" report by the World Bank Group published on 26 April.
"The war in Ukraine has dealt a major shock to commodity markets, altering global patterns of trade, production, and consumption in ways that will keep prices at historically high levels through the end of 2024," – the relevant statement on the organization's website reads.
According to the World Bank's analysts, the energy prices will rise by more than 50% in 2022 and will somewhat level off only during 2023-2024. Agricultural and metal prices will increase by almost 20% this year.
In particular, the price of Brent oil which is considered a benchmark as a result of logistics and production disruptions will stay at the level of 100 dollars per barrel in 2022 which is 40% higher than in 2021 – that will be the highest mark since 2013. Natural gas prices in Europe, in turn, will rise by 50%, while coal prices are expected to be 80 percent higher.
Wheat prices are expected to rise by 40 percent in 2022 compared to last year's numbers and become an all-time high in nominal terms. As the World Bank's experts point out, that will affect the food-exporting countries, first of all, russia and Ukraine.
In general, in the next three years, food prices will stay higher than the average during the last five years. If russia's war in Ukraine drags on, commodity prices can grow (and, consequently, fluctuate) even more.
"This amounts to the largest commodity shock since the 1970s. As was the case then, the shock is being aggravated by a surge in restrictions in the trade of food, fuel, and fertilizers. These developments raise the probability of stagflation,” – said Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions.
Because of the war, Ukraine is expected to harvest 20 percent fewer grain crops than in 2021.