As of July 2024, approximately 30 million people lived in the free territory of Ukraine, according to data from Ukraine’s three major mobile operators. The country’s future demographic situation will depend on several factors, with the most crucial being the duration of the war’s active phase.
This was stated by Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute of Demography, during the discussion Ukrainian society in the fourth year of the Great War, organised by the New Country project of LB.ua and EFI Group.
“The key question is when the hot phase of the war will end. In my opinion, ‘when’ is even more important than ‘how,’” Libanova said.
“‘How’ does not mean that we can lose. It means that we will win, but the terms of the peace agreement may vary. A compromise will be necessary, and something will have to be sacrificed. The question is what. But above all, the timing matters.”
According to Eurostat, as of 30 November 2024, 4.2 million Ukrainians were under temporary protection or refugee status in the EU. About a million more were in other countries. Additionally, around 3 million Ukrainians are classified as labour migrants, with many already obtaining residence permits. The total number of labour migrants could reach 9 million.
“Every month that the hot phase of the war continues, more and more Ukrainians decide to stay abroad. Children adapt, enrol in schools, and adults find jobs. According to Polish data, over 80% of Ukrainian women of working age are employed. I cross-checked this with Eurostat, and the figures are consistent. The unemployment rate among Ukrainian women in the EU is about 18%, compared to 17% in Ukraine,” Libanova noted.
Another major challenge is the destruction of infrastructure and jobs. The longer the war lasts, the fewer people will return.
“If at least a third of those who left come back, that would be a good result,” Libanova concluded.