Even if all Ukrainians who left due to the war were to return, depopulation in Ukraine would still be inevitable. This was stated by Ella Libanova, Director of the Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, during the discussion Ukrainian society in the fourth year of the Great War, organised by the New Country project of LB.ua and EFI Group.
Libanova emphasised that Ukraine’s potential for demographic growth has been completely exhausted. The only way to increase the population is through immigration, but she is not convinced that Ukrainian society is prepared to integrate people with different lifestyles and religious backgrounds.
“With the exception of Transcarpathia and parts of Odesa Region, Ukrainians have not traditionally lived in multi-ethnic societies,” she noted.
She referred to long-term studies by the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences, which has been monitoring social attitudes since 1992.
“They have always asked: Who are you willing to accept as family members, neighbours, or colleagues? Before the war in 2014, Ukrainians placed fellow Ukrainians living abroad at the top of this list. This says a lot about our level of tolerance. We are not a xenophobic nation, but we are not as open as Europeans. We still need to learn,” Libanova said.
Because of this, she believes Ukrainians are not ready to live alongside a large number of culturally different migrants, which poses a challenge for the country’s demographic future.
During the discussion, social and military psychologist Oleh Pokalchuk pointed out that depopulation is a global trend, not unique to Ukraine. Population growth is now mostly observed only in some African countries.
- As of July 2024, data from Ukraine’s three major mobile operators estimated that 30 million people lived in free Ukrainian territory. According to Eurostat, as of 30 November 2024, 4.2 million Ukrainians were under temporary protection or refugee status in the EU, with another one million in other countries. Additionally, there are approximately 3 million long-term labour migrants, many of whom have obtained residence permits. The total number of labour migrants may be as high as 9 million.