"Ukrainian society in the fourth year of the great war" was the theme of the year 2025 for the joint project of LB.ua and EFI Group New Country. During the first meeting, experts and guests discussed, among other things, where the country stands today, what to expect from talk of a possible ‘truce’ and end of the war; they talked about the morale of Ukrainians, the dynamics of migration and depopulation, the state of the economy, possible future elections, and the factors that divide/unite people.
The discussion was attended by:
- Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life; Ella Libanova
Oleh Pokalchuk, social and military psychologist;
Oleh Pokalchuk
- Valeriy Pekar, lecturer at Kyiv Mohyla Business School;Valeriy Pekar
Oleksiy Antypovych, Head of the Rating Sociological Group;
Oleksiy Antypovych
Ihor Liski, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of EFI Group;
Ihor Liski
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representatives of the public sector, activists, and MPs.
"As of the middle of last year (according to mobile operators), we had 30 million people in the government-controlled territory. What will happen next? There are many questions here. The first question is when will the hot phase of the war end? And here, ‘when’ is even more important than ‘how’. ‘How’ does not mean that we can lose. ‘How’ means that we are winning, but the terms of the peace agreement may be different, it is a compromise, and something will have to be sacrificed. The question is what.
But the main thing is ‘when’. Why? ... Because every month of the hot phase of the war leads to the fact that more and more people who have left will stay there because they are adapting," says Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life.
According to her data, as of 1 December 2024, 9 million Ukrainians are abroad, along with military migrants, labour migrants, including those who left in an earlier period.
In addition, adds Oleksiy Antypovych, head of the Rating sociological group, 38% of young people aged 18-29 in Ukraine, according to one study, are ready or would like to change their place of residence.
"15% each are ready to move abroad or to another region, and another part is ready to move to another settlement in their region. That is, conditionally, from the village to the regional centre. This is internal migration. Historically, people who came 100-200 years ago from the countryside to the regional centre brought with them rural, but Ukrainian culture. And then there was no complete cleansing. To some extent, it helped us out. And now it can help us in the same way. Young people are looking for something more interesting, something better. But the percentage of people willing to go abroad is already an indicator," the sociologist believes.
Assessing the emotional state of society at the beginning of 2025, military and social psychologist Oleh Pokalchuk stated that, according to his observations, civilian society is much more psychopathic than military society. He also sees no threat of a conflict between civilians and the military after the war ends.
"What will happen after the ceasefire? I would say that nothing special will happen. Because, from the point of view of the military, what is there in your beautiful civilian civil society that would make me leave everything, my brothers, my sisters and my friends and run to you to do what? Over the years, I have my own party, my friends, with whom I can be silent and talk. Do you have a job? Or do you not? Then goodbye. That means there will be no conflict," says Pokalchuk.
Valeriy Pekar, a lecturer at the Kyiv Mohyla Business School, believes that all the problems in Ukraine today did not arise because of the war, it simply exposed them.
"The trends we are seeing are not caused by the war. In general, there is a very simple law: any crisis accelerates trends. The greater the crisis, the greater the acceleration of trends. The war is the most severe of all crises. It accelerated trends to the maximum. And before that, there was a smaller crisis called a covid, which also accelerates trends, but less than war. Therefore, there are no trends that would be generated by the war," said Pekar, commenting, in particular, on the problem of migration.
According to businessman Ihor Liski, Ukraine must now decide what kind of country it wants to be in the future.
"Which model will we choose - the model of opportunities and economic freedom or the country of equality and the welfare state. Then we need to understand how to maintain this welfare state. I'm afraid that this populist agenda under the slogans of social, European progressive ideology can destroy the country. Because pensioners will remain, military veterans will come and say: ‘We defended this country, give us welfare, housing, etc.’. And those who are supposed to provide this will leave for new opportunities. Therefore, the social contract needs to be rethought. This is one of our tasks, and for me personally, it is the watershed where development and, perhaps, the bright future of Ukraine begins," said Liski.
The full speeches of the keynote speakers will be available on LB.ua soon.
