American pause. Ukraine's main problems without US help

In total, since 24 February 2022, the United States has provided Ukraine with $65.9 billion in military assistance. What exactly have we received (the numbers change as the processes are ongoing)?

Air defence systems

• 3 batteries of the MIM 104 Patriot surface-to-air missile system;
• 4 batteries of the MIM 23 Hawk anti-aircraft missile system;
• 12 AN/TWQ-1 Avenger surface-to-air missile systems;
• over 2,662 Stinger man-portable air defence systems;
• 12 batteries of the NASAMS anti-aircraft missile system (the developer and manufacturer of this system is Kongsberg from Norway, but the AN/TPQ-64 radar and AIM-120 AMRAAM anti-aircraft missiles are produced in the United States, so for the sake of fairness, we will mention them as well).

Artillery and ammunition

• 170 155 mm M777 howitzers;
• 199 105 mm L119 howitzers;
• 167 155 mm M109 self-propelled artillery systems;
• 39 HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems;
• 27 MLRS multiple launch rocket systems;
• more than 8622 FGM 148 Javelin anti-tank missile systems;
• more than 12700 M72 LAW anti-tank grenade launchers;
• 10000 anti-tank missiles TOW.

Armoured vehicles and cars

• 31 M1 Abrams tanks;
• 186 Bradley M2A2 ODS combat vehicles;
• 584 M113 APCs;
• 189 Stryker APCs;
• 250 M1117 APCs;
• 140 Cougar armoured vehicles;
• 440 International MaxxPro armoured vehicles;
• 2050 HMMWV military vehicles;
• 298 Oshkosh FMTV M1083 trucks;
• 15 Oshkosh M1070 heavy transporters.

RADARS

• 76 AN/TPQ-36 and AN/MPQ-64 reconnaissance radars for firing batteries.

UAVS

• 1500 Phoenix Ghost tactical UAVs;
• 700 Switchblade barrage munitions;
• 350 Autel EVO tactical UAVs;
• 100 Quantix Recon UAS tactical UAVs.

Watercraft

62 SeaArk Dauntless boats24 Mark VI boats (not all have been delivered).

The share of US aid in the total volume is as follows:

• Tanks - 21% in the segment of Western-style tanks and 5% of the total
• APCs - 38%
• APCs - 80%
• cannons - 58%
• MLRS - 43%
• armoured vehicles - 94%
• lorries - 22%
• man-portable air defence systems - 44%
• long-range air defence systems - 33%
• short and medium-range air defence systems - 20%
• ATGMS - 18%.
• RADARS - 70%
• watercraft - 72%

Even rough estimates show that not all items are critical for the Defence Forces to depend on US supplies. The main problems will be the shortage of PAC-2 anti-aircraft guided missiles (GEM+ series, including Guidance Enhanced Missile (GEM), GEM-Cruise (GEM-C), GEM-Tactical (GEM-T) and PAC-3 (Cost Reduction Initiative (CRI), Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE), medium-range AIM-120 AMRAAM. This will result in greater destruction of peaceful places in Ukraine and critical infrastructure. 

It should not be forgotten that as part of the FrankenSam programme, Ukrainian Buk missile systems have gained the ability to fire missiles made in the West, primarily in the United States.

The issue of replacing the gun barrels will be acute. The M777 howitzer barrel has a service life of 2,500 rounds. It can be operated further, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to hit anywhere. During the fighting for Avdiyivka, the howitzer fired an average of 180 rounds per day, and sometimes even more, up to 250. At this rate of operation, the factory's service life will be exhausted in 2 weeks. Next up is the barrel replacement. Replacing it with what? Add in the parts of the bolt group and anti-recoil devices, and the problem becomes much more complicated.

The problem of spare parts for M2 Bradly MICV, Striker armoured personnel carriers, armoured vehicles of all brands, anti-aircraft missile launchers, which are targeted by the enemy and whose positions are shelled with all available arsenal, will be painful, leading to damage.

MLRS M270 and M142 HIMARS will be starved for missiles due to the lack of rockets. The defence forces will lose the ability to launch ATACMS missiles. As a result, enemy logistics will raise its head, and command posts will spread what they have instead of wings.

A huge issue is obtaining permission from the US government to re-export any US-made weapons to Ukraine by third countries. For example, aircraft. The Air Force received six F-16 fighters and lost one, but it was supposed to receive 24 aircraft from the Netherlands, 19 from Denmark, 30 from Belgium, 6 from Norway and 32 from Greece. How will this be implemented? Or is there a pause?

The defence forces and the defence industry are communicating vessels. In total, since February 2022, the US government has allocated at least $44 billion in military assistance to Ukraine. Of this amount, more than 61% has remained in the US and has been distributed among major US suppliers and arms manufacturers in 37 of the 50 states. And suddenly, a pause. What should manufacturers do? Pause the production lines and send their employees (probably the most expensive specialists in the labour market) on holiday? Money spent, warehouses stocked up, and now they need to be protected more closely. This whole picture is in line with the old army saying ‘smoke up the chimney, firewood back to the starting position’.

The stock exchange assessed the US administration's decisions as follows: over the past 10 days, the share price of leading US defence companies has continued to decline. This is due to political uncertainty and a possible reduction in the US defence budget. Shares of Lockheed Martin fell by about 19%, General Dynamics - by 13%, Boeing - by 4%, and Oshkosh Corp - by 4%. 

At the same time, European defence companies are showing growth amid increased investment in modernising their defence capabilities. For example, shares of German company Rheinmetall rose by 8.9%, Swedish Saab by 11%, and French Dassault Aviation by 15%. Goldman Sachs' basket of European defence stocks rose 16% to a new record, pushing its annual gain to 63%.

These trends are indicative of changes in the defence industry, with European companies strengthening their positions, while US companies face challenges due to the domestic political situation.

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