Russia has forced millions of Ukrainians abroad, occupied Mariupol, deprived us of access to the Sea of Azov, and turned the eastern agglomerations into rubble and cemeteries.
If a ceasefire occurs, Russians will extend a railway line from Europe’s largest nuclear power plant to Crimea, spread propaganda, and send the residents of Mariupol and Melitopol to storm Zaporizhzhya - just as they once sent the residents of Donetsk and Luhansk to Mariupol and Melitopol.
Some companies that left Russia out of sympathy for Ukraine will return.
Some sanctions will be circumvented by Moscow through its satellites and countries in the Global South.
If part of the shadow fleet is seized, Russia will buy more ships and register them under shell companies.
The 30 million beneficiaries of the war in Russia - the military-industrial complex, the administration, and those profiting from sanction evasion - will celebrate, while the rest will be crushed by repression and propaganda.
And before the election, we will learn what they were preparing for at Chongar and how the Russians reached Brovary in just 48 hours.
Russia will not even need to spend money on PSYOP. A mine with defective powder, a criminal dragging a soldier into a car, a deputy who is also a restaurateur - something will happen.
It is the truth.
We have brought Russia to the state of crippled regiments, where the wounded on crutches carry ammunition, and donkeys are assigned to military units. This was unthinkable before the war.
By trying to seize Avdiyivka and Pokrovsk, the enemy lost its friendly regime in Syria and its influence in Armenia.
The Russian Black Sea Fleet lost a third of its ships and most of its landing craft, which were sunk or disabled.
Everyone talks about the Moskva, but I still admire how they hit a submarine with a Storm Shadow missile - it burned like a match. The Russian fleet has retreated to Novorossiysk and is showing no signs of life.
We have destroyed several strategic arsenals, multiple refineries have endured three waves of airstrikes, and Rosrezerv factories have burned for weeks.
Under pressure from long-range drone strikes, Russia banned fuel exports and lost ferry connections to Crimea.
For the first time in history, we captured the regional centre of a UN Security Council member and a nuclear power.
North Koreans joined the war, lost a third of their forces, and are now regrouping.
And that is also true. Not a single word of lies or manipulation. We have done well - few in the modern world could achieve this.
Strategically, we have lost people and access to the sea. Against the backdrop of the battles near Pokrovsk, talk of reclaiming Crimea or restoring past borders sounds delusional.
Strategically, we have gained the European Union as our rear - half a billion people and the world’s largest GDP. The United States is negotiating arms supplies in exchange for access to our resources.
In other words, neither the EU nor the US is betraying us. Despite the aggressive accusations of dictatorship and claims that Ukraine is to blame for the war, I do not believe the US will cut off our aid and risk millions more refugees or mass filtration camps in major cities.
We have over 70 HIMARS and M270 launchers, capable of striking targets tens of kilometres away with pinpoint accuracy. Our adversaries need only limit our supply of high-precision missiles to hinder our effectiveness.
The latest generation of anti-ballistic missiles for Gulf monarchies costs $5–7 million each - even the US cannot produce enough kinetic interceptors to meet demand. No country in the world can replace the US in missile defence.
We have Starlink and active satellite communications. If they wanted to cut us off, they could, and much would collapse - including maritime drone operations. There are alternatives, but they are not plug-and-play solutions.
You see the difference, right? Musk’s Kremlin-aligned tweets for his eccentric audience are one thing; satellite communications are another.
What about rare earth minerals?
Ukraine has some of the largest gas reserves in Europe, yet it has imported gas for years due to corruption and mismanagement.
It has vast uranium reserves, but we rely on Westinghouse for fuel.
Let them come, drill wells, and modernise our mines. Paying for supplies is normal - the UK paid off its Lend-Lease debt until the late 1990s.
Money, assets, and access to the US’s defence ecosystem - this is the best deal available. Of course, negotiations should be strategic. But in the long term, Ukraine should be interested in joint resource development - gas, oil, uranium, titanium, not just lithium.
Europe is producing hundreds of thousands of drones for us. The EU does not have a battle-tested Unmanned Operations Force, but it has the industrial capacity. A million shells are on the way. Rheinmetall, Patria, and the Danish defence model are integrating into Ukraine’s defence sector. Every major European and UK manufacturer is producing self-propelled artillery systems for us.
They are supplying us with gun barrels, electronics, electronic warfare systems - everything.
Even so, it is not enough for 150+ brigades, but they are doing a lot.
As the Russians push closer to the Dnipro, the EU will step up.
They will find supplies in storage, buy on the market, or contract civilian manufacturers - like France - to ramp up production.
After donkeys and T-55s with barbecue grills, what’s next? Catapults? After Zhigulis, will they ride Pobedas?
Sooner or later, trouble will reach Moscow. Occupying Pokrovsk’s outskirts does not mean you can mass-produce a million shells and British self-propelled guns.
This is the key point: we have switched roles.
During Ilovaysk, this was not the case - but now it is.
That is why Russia wants a pause. It needs to terrorise Europe with hybrid warfare and psychological pressure while regrouping. Ukraine cannot be subdued without undermining our European allies.
Meanwhile, the US wants to focus on the Asia-Pacific region.
China is building its third aircraft carrier, developing electromagnetic catapults, and training naval pilots. A fourth carrier, nuclear-powered, is already under construction.
Within a generation, China will be competing for global trade routes and securing its own Midway Atoll.
Washington is preparing for Cold War II in Asia and will likely cut its presence in Europe and the Middle East.
Our task is clear: we must reach out - to our people, our allies, and even those hesitant to support us.
To six million men who have not yet downloaded Reserve+.
To millions of Ukrainians in Europe.
To our continental neighbours.
Nothing is over. We can expand our influence to Asia and South America.
But the race has already begun.
Australia is ordering nuclear submarines and OTRCs - it produces more gas than Norway and is defending key trade routes.
Vietnam is battling over the Spratly Islands, where China is building artificial airstrips and ports.
China’s ambitions are clear: control the Strait of Malacca and the regions that could cut off fuel, raw materials, and energy to the West’s carrier groups.
The world is looking at each other through missile launch monitors.
Nothing matters more than this.
You can run your whole life - but you cannot run to the moon. And you cannot run from yourself.
Everything will be decided on the front line.
We can crumble and decay like rotting flesh, becoming the next stepping stone for Russia’s aggression against the EU.
We can live in refugee camps, eating rationed rice and beans.
We can work for Putin’s war machine, which murders our children and targets Chornobyl’s sarcophagus.
Or we can fight.
We can build the Eastern Wall, counterattack where possible, mine the Russian border, and turn hundreds of kilometres into a no-go zone.
We must become a sea urchin - one that guarantees to wound the predator’s mouth.
For those who want Ukraine to survive and thrive, the choice is obvious.