There are no signs that Russia's strategic campaign is achieving any goal other than civilian suffering and billions of dollars spent on missile strikes.
Once again, the coalition of rogue states is convinced the West isn’t ready for prolonged campaigns, economic strain, or human losses because even losing a couple of planes causes hysteria. That’s a problem.
If the Russians truly wished to end the war, they would not be conducting mobilisations – including the one currently underway – nor would they be inviting North Koreans or placing their economy on a war footing.
The fact that Putin has begun threatening to strike Kyiv with the Oreshnik missile is a clear sign of weakness ‒ it is no more advanced than Korean OTRKs or the Iskander system, but Russia has no other remaining threats to issue.
Now, Russian pilots will be even more apprehensive when taking off, they will have to operate from an even further distance, and they will have to leave the sector even faster.
The 51st arsenal stored important high-tech equipment: ATGMs, including helicopter-mounted ones, air defence missiles, especially for the S-300/400, various warheads for OTRK, and precision-guided missiles.
As soon as the off-road conditions are over and the Russians think they are ready, they will strike - they will try to turn the front over and move it into a manoeuvrable phase.
The sooner Moscow comes to the edge of the abyss, the sooner blood will stop flowing in Europe and the risk of Berlin becoming involved in a full-scale conflict with Russia will be reduced.