“I do not have access to classified information, but from what I hear, I understand that in terms of protection we have a chance that next winter will be better than this one. This is because substations of regional power companies and transformers at power plants are being protected. This is extremely important. Elements that do not belong directly to the power system are also being protected: compressor stations that pump gas, pumping units of water utilities in key cities, and other critical facilities.
So, from a protection standpoint (I will make a forecast, since unofficially I can allow myself to do so), it will be better,” Volodymyr Kudrytskyy said.
However, he is convinced that the declared 1.5 GW of new generation capacity will not be built before the next heating season.
“Why will it not be built? Distributed generation is a critically important element for the country’s survival during the war. These are the words of Prime Minister Svyrydenko. Just a month and a half ago, we had up to four rounds of power outages. Then the weather warmed up, and the entire focus that existed in January–February on rolling out distributed generation faded. And several things happened.
The first was that operators of these new gas-fired power plants received notice on 14 March that, as of 9 March, they were no longer consuming gas supplied at a special price, and for the period from 9 to 14 March they would have to pay a penalty, because the government had retroactively decided to cancel this gas,” Kudrytskyy noted.
“The second point: on 30 March, the government, adjusting its previous decision, said that preferential gas would be provided to frontline territories where gas piston and gas turbine units are in operation — but only to those commissioned from 1 December 2025. Those gas piston units that were operating in November 2025 or October (remember how well things were going back then?) are now deemed unnecessary and even harmful. They will face gas prices one and a half to two times higher.
And the third point: from 1 April, our energy regulator, in its infinite wisdom, reduces the electricity price at which I am allowed to sell the output produced by a power plant on the market. In other words, there is a buyer willing to pay 7,000 UAH per MWh, and a seller ready to sell at 7,000 UAH. But then there is the regulator, Mr Vlasenko (Yuriy Vlasenko, head of the national energy regulator – ed.), who says: ‘5,600 is your maximum. Take it or leave it.’ As a result, we have market gas prices rising amid the Iran crisis, alongside an administratively imposed cap on electricity prices — the product generated from that gas,” Volodymyr Kudrytskyy added.
According to the former head of Ukrenergo, this has led investors building new generation capacity to adopt a wait-and-see position and effectively pause their projects. They are waiting for clarity on what the government intends to do next with electricity and gas pricing.
“It is now early April, and deploying this new generation takes 8–10 months. So we can plan for it and expect it, but the decision to proceed is not made by the prime minister, the president, the government, or members of parliament. It is made by the investor,” the expert noted.
He stressed that just two administrative decisions have caused imports to collapse and brought already-built gas piston generation to a halt.
“I want to emphasise this point. There are stories about strategic issues, about air defence, and then there are stories about two decisions because of which gas generation will not operate tomorrow and there will be no imports. These are fairly easy to fix. To me, this is a practical issue.
…We should not assume that local decisions can somehow compensate for the 7 GW deficit President Zelenskyy spoke about this winter. We have a single energy system and two pillars of resilience — strengthening protection and deploying new generation. I will repeat: on the first, I believe we will do reasonably well; on the second, there is a huge problem. I very much hope that the administrative decisions needed to unblock this process will give us, if not by next winter then at least the one after, the opportunity to obtain these 1.5 GW of additional capacity, without which we will face exactly the same situation as last winter,” Kudrytskyy concluded.