The first factor that can and will contribute to victory, in Ihor Liski’s view, is the stabilisation of the front line.
“There are some positive signs emerging here. It is still a very complex situation, but, judging by the complaints of Russian military correspondents, there are reasons for optimism. Deep strikes, medium-range strikes… Europe has finally got its act together. We are seeing positive developments regarding aircraft, ammunition, armoured systems, investment, and direct investment in drones. In other words, the most important task is to stabilise the front,” says the businessman.
The second factor influencing the war, notes Ihor Liski, is the Russian economy. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, in his view, became a ‘black swan’ for the war and gave the Russian economy a chance. However, the release of the €90 billion EU loan, the businessman believes, has levelled the playing field between Ukraine’s and Russia’s military budgets.
“In other words, the cards Donald Trump spoke of, which Russia once held more strongly, are becoming fewer and fewer. As soon as the front stabilises and the Russian offensive stalls, the Russian economy will be left to face the consequences. And this puzzle must come together.
I firmly believe that our deep strikes — primarily on Russian oil storage facilities and tankers — combined with European sanctions, physical disruption and logistical challenges, will lead to a slowdown. It will not be a complete halt, because high oil prices actually work in their favour.
But with the resolution of the problem in the Strait of Hormuz, hopefully within a month, by September or October the price of oil should fall to around $45–50 per barrel, which would be devastating for the budget of the Russian war machine. And favourable for our victory in this war,” said Liski.
Russia’s economic collapse and defeat in the war, the businessman believes, would pave the way for the diplomatic return of Crimea and other temporarily occupied territories. Russia itself, he adds, would find itself at a crossroads.
“They will not know what kind of Russia to build — whether to become a vassal of China, change course once again and try to restart relations with Europe, or turn towards the United States. There will also be those for whom a ‘strong hand’ is enough. But Russia’s real benefit has always come from cooperation and trade with Europeans. European companies helped build modern Russia because they believed it could be different,” Liski believes.
And then, he emphasises, Ukrainian and European diplomacy must present a united front to secure the diplomatic return of Ukraine’s territories: “If you want to be a civilised country, return the territories and pay reparations; abandon Putin’s legacy and the cult of personality.”
“We must not let them escape responsibility for this. Perhaps Ukrainian and Russian intelligence services will work together to convince Europeans that one vast, incomprehensible country with a penchant for dictators and tsars is far worse than four or five normal ones. So the fate of the Russian Federation lies, to a certain extent, in our hands. If Russia does not rid itself of its imperial vision of the future, it will always remain an enemy, change course for five or ten years, and then return to aggression once again,” noted Ihor Liski.
But regardless of the path Russia takes, the businessman noted, Ukraine must become strong and successful and join the European Union. First and foremost, however, it must win on the battlefield.