Russia is trying to present itself as the world’s second-largest arms exporter by using its own estimates instead of verified data on actual deliveries.
This was stated by Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
According to the FISU, the pro-Kremlin Centre for Analysis of World Arms Trade (CAWAT) claimed that in 2025 Russia allegedly exported arms worth about $15bn, securing 12.55% of the global market.
As Ukrainian intelligence notes, this figure lacks a sufficient evidential basis. CAWAT itself acknowledges that after 2022 Moscow virtually stopped publishing data on the fulfilment of export contracts.
Therefore, the $15bn estimate is largely based on Putin’s statement about foreign-currency revenue from arms exports.
For comparison, the FISU cites data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). By its calculations, in 2021–2025 Russian exports of major arms fell by 64% compared with 2016–2020. Russia’s share of the global market dropped from 21% to 6.8%.
According to SIPRI’s latest data, in 2021–2025 Russia ranked third among the largest exporters of major arms, after the United States and France. Its share amounted to 6.8% of global exports.
SIPRI also notes that the 64% fall in Russian exports was the largest among the ten leading arms suppliers. The institute links the decline, in particular, to a sharp drop in Russia’s deliveries to Algeria, China and Egypt.
Thus, CAWAT’s estimate of a 12.55% share of the global market differs significantly from SIPRI’s figures. Ukrainian intelligence believes Moscow is using such numbers to create the impression that Russia has retained a strong position in the global arms market.