Francis Fukuyama, an American philosopher, economist and professor at Stanford University, believes that Ukraine will gain a clear victory in the war with Russia and that the whole world will feel the consequences of this victory. He noted this in his article for American Purpose as reported by ZN.ua.
Fukuyama stated that he was currently located in Northern Macedonia. The coverage of the Russian war against Ukraine in Skopje is somewhat different from the pan-European tone. Largely because of the country's commitment to Serbia, as well as the popularity of the Serbian version of the Russian propaganda channel Sputnik. Fukuyama put together a list of 12 predictions that he believes would be the result of the Russian invasion.
First of all, according to the American philosopher, Russia will face a clear defeat in Ukraine. Russia's war planning was absolutely incompetent, based on false expectations that Ukrainians would be sympathetic to the aggressor and that the Ukrainian army would disintegrate very quickly. It appears that Russian soldiers took parade uniforms with them, preparing for a holiday parade in Kyiv, instead of grabbing additional ammunition and food. At the moment, Volodymyr Putin has already thrown almost all his military forces into battle. There are no significant reserves that he could mobilize and send to the war zone. Russian troops are stuck next to many Ukrainian cities, where they are suffering from major logistic supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
Next, the collapse of Russia's position will be abrupt and catastrophic. There will be no war of attrition or defeat. On the battlefield, Russian troops will soon reach a point where they will be unable to either secure supply chains or retreat. Their moral condition is gradually worsening. At least this is what is happening in the northern direction. In the south, the Russians have been somewhat successful, but it will be difficult for them to hold these positions after the collapse of the offensive in the north.
Third, no diplomatic solution is possible prior to Russia's military collapse. No compromise exists that would be acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia, given the losses suffered by both parties at the moment.
Fourth, the UN Security Council has once again shown its weakness. The only useful thing was the vote of the General Assembly, which helped to clearly identify who the bad side was.
Fifth, Fukuyama considers the Joe Biden Administration’s decision not to introduce a no-fly zone over Ukraine and not to hand over MiG-29 planes to be appropriate. According to the philosopher, they showed sensible behavior in very emotional times. It will be much better if Ukraine defeats the Russian army itself so that Moscow cannot justify its defeat by NATO intervention. This would also help avoid the obvious risks of escalation. Fukuyama is convinced that the Polish MiG-29 would not help much to strengthen Ukraine's military capabilities. It is much more important to continue to deliver Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, communications systems, as well as provide intelligence data. Most likely, Ukrainian forces are already using information from NATO.
Fukuyama's sixth point provides that Ukraine, of course, pays an extremely high price. Missiles and artillery cause very severe damage. A MiG-29 or a no-fly zone, according to the philosopher, would not protect the country from Russian weapons. Therefore, the only thing to stop the massacre is to defeat the Russian army on the ground.
Fukuyama's seventh prediction says Putin will not survive the defeat. He is supported because he is considered to be a strongman. What will he be able to offer when he demonstrates his incompetence and powerlessness?
Eighth prediction: The Russian invasion has already caused great damage to populists around the world, who unanimously expressed their admiration for Putin before the war. Among them are Matteo Salvini in Italy, Jair Bolsonara in Brazil, Eric Zemur and Marin Le Pen in France, Victor Orban in Hungary, and, definitely, Donald Trump in the United States. The policy of war has exposed their outright authoritarian leanings.
Fukuyama's ninth point provides that the war has so far been a proper lesson for China. Just like Russia, the country has built up high-tech armed forces over the past ten years. However, this army has no combat experience. The deplorable successes of the Russian Air Force are likely to be the fate of the Air Force of the Chinese Liberation Army, which also has no experience in conducting complex operations in the sky. We can now hope that the Chinese government will not resort to self-deception about its own capabilities, when it wants to attack Taiwan in the future, as Russia has done.
The tenth piece of advice from the philosopher - it's time for Taiwan to wake up and start preparing for battle, as the Ukrainians did. Military conscription needs to be restored. However, there’s no need to prepare in advance for the defeat of the island.
Eleventh forecast: Turkish drones will become bestsellers in the world.
At last, the twelfth prediction: Russia's defeat will pave the way for a "new birth of freedom" and put an end to the talk of the decline of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will be revived thanks to the courage of Ukrainians.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has indicated in one of his speeches that Ukraine has a 100% chance of winning the war. It’s just not 100% clear when.