The scenarios we choose
Project analysts continue to investigate possible results of the course of military operations in 2023 and their consequences for both Ukraine and Russia.
At the beginning of this year, we published part of our work on the calculation of four basic scenarios of the course of the Russian-Ukrainian war in the public domain. In particular, these are the following options:
1) restoration of Ukraine's sovereignty within the internationally recognized borders of 1991; 2) temporary freezing of the conflict on the battle line, part of which is still on our territory; 3) total defeat of Russia; 4) total defeat of Ukraine.
Analysts of the project, as before, believe that in 2023 the most likely option is the restoration of Ukraine's sovereignty within the borders of 1991. Despite the problems with the supply of modern Western weapons, the leakage of sensitive secret documents from the Pentagon, the Armed Forces continue intensive preparations for a counterattack. As it stands today, we still have all the preconditions for it to be successful and to become the basis for the realization of the desired scenario of victory for us.
The option of a temporary freeze of military operations, when a part of the Ukrainian territories will not be de-occupied, although it is less likely, but it cannot be ignored during further analysis.
Experts of the Information Defence project outlined four basic scenarios for the development of events in Russia in 2023 (two of which determine the preservation of the political regime, and two determine fundamental changes):
1) preservation of the current political regime in Russia led by Putin; 2) preservation of the current political regime in Russia with a new authoritarian leader; 3) the change of the political regime in Russia and the coming to power of a pro-Western liberal government; 4) the disintegration of Russia into numerous national and regional entities.
The implementation of one or another scenario depends on the action of many factors, in particular, the position of the United States, our European partners and China.
At the same time, in our opinion, the decisive influence on the internal the Russian situation will be handled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the more convincing the victories of our soldiers on the battlefield, the greater the probability that Putin will end up in The Hague, and Russia will embark on the path of democratic transformation and denazification.
Below we will analyze each of the scenarios in more details.
SCENARIO ONE. Preservation of the current political regime in Russia led by Putin.
The most conservative scenario is also the most likely today. Despite some disagreements between some members of the ruling class, Putin and his government today rely on broad elite support. Putin's regime is also supported by a large part of the zombified Russian society (according to various estimates, up to 80% of respondents consistently support the so-called “special military operation in Ukraine”).
Putin and people close to him whom he trusts control the armed forces and special services of Russia.
The Russian authorities, preparing for a conflict with the West and armed aggression against Ukraine, created the National Welfare Fund, which is a certain "security cushion" for the economy. The Fund's budget as of Apr. 1, 2023 amounted to almost 154.5 billion dollars (almost 8% of the country's GNP). Part of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves was converted into Chinese yuan, and part was “hidden”.
Western sanctions do have a negative impact on the Russian economy, but rather in the medium and long term. At the beginning of 2023, their action led to a deficit in the Russian budget due to the sanctioned cap on oil prices and large-scale spending on the production and modernization of weapons. However, this does not prevent the Russian government from fully financing the costs of waging war in Ukraine.
Even if the budget deficit leads to a drop in social standards in Russia, it will not have a decisive effect on the decrease in the level of support for Putin's government - Russian citizens are ready to endure socio-economic troubles.
At first glance, Putin's regime looks quite stable, and nothing seems to threaten his personal power.
However, I want to recall the fate of Gaddafi and Hussein, who felt supposedly safe a few days before their violent death. Or the fate of the Ceausescu couple, who were shot by a military tribunal by soldiers of an army allegedly loyal to them.
By the way, there is a fairly widespread opinion in political science that it is quite difficult or impossible to calculate the stability/instability of authoritarian political regimes. As one famous speaker says, changes accumulate gradually, but are implemented in leaps and bounds.
Since the results of the counterattack of the Armed Forces are currently unknown, the specified scenario looks the most likely. However, the situation can radically change in the event of a convincing victory of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
SCENARIO TWO. Preservation of the current political regime in Russia with a new authoritarian leader.
As a rule, in countries with an autocratic regime, the entire system of public administration rests on one person: the leaders are the dictators of the country. He is the system-forming rod of power - remove this rod and the entire political system will collapse like a house of cards.
However, in force majeure circumstances, the political elite can replace an authoritarian leader for the sake of their own self-preservation.
An internal elite coup and the removal of Putin from power can occur in the case of total military failures of the aggressor country and the impossibility of explaining them to society even through total propaganda.
The coup can be carried out according to both a soft and a hard scenario.
In the first case, Putin will be offered to "quietly" retire and live out his old age somewhere in the Altai or China in quite decent conditions. Under such events, Putin is not in danger of being extradited to the Hague. And Russian subjects will, of course, be told from the "blue" screens that Comrade Putin made a number of mistakes, but the wise collective Russian leadership corrected him and everything will be OK in the future.
This option is now widely discussed among the Russian opposition, where there is talk of replacing Putin with Patrushev Jr., the son of the current secretary of the Russian Security Council.
You wake up one morning. And the country will miss its leader who “has burned out” at work for three days.
“Senseless and merciless” Russian rebellion and the collapse of the Russian Federation. Let's recall February 1917, when the abdication of Tsar Nicholai II under the pressure of the generals actually “triggered” two revolutions and a civil war.
At the same time, nothing will change for Ukraine if this scenario is implemented. Whether Putin remains in power or is replaced by another figure from the current ruling class, Russia's imperial political course will be preserved, perhaps with some adjustments.
And, therefore, we will have to continue the war with Russia until our final victory.
SCENARIO THREE. The change of the political regime in Russia and the coming to power of a pro-Western liberal government.
Today, the development of events is quite unlikely, although it is the most acceptable and desirable for the countries of Europe and the USA.
The Russian opposition is weak, it does not have sufficient public support in the country. It lacks unity, the opposition forces are ideologically and organizationally scattered. As a result of the activities of the Russian "chekists", their Russian organizational structures have been destroyed, and sources of financial support have been destroyed or blocked. The majority of oppositionists emigrated abroad, where they are engaged in banal “talking”.
At the same time, several oppositionists, who coordinate their political actions quite weakly, today claim the role of the only opposition leader, in particular, these are Aleksey Navalny, Gari Kasparov, and Mykhail Khodorkovsky.
The coming to power of the Russian opposition in the form it currently exists is possible only under conditions of strong support from the United States.
The newly formed pro-Western Russian government can agree to the payment of reparations for the reconstruction of Ukraine, the conviction of war criminals, including the extradition of Putin under the warrant of the International Criminal Court, the program of denazification of Russian society, the creation of demilitarized zones.
However, due to internal reasons, primarily due to the negative attitude of Russian society towards the opposition, which is associated with the disorder and “humiliation” of Russia in the 90s, it is unlikely that the government formed by it will be stable and long-term.
Most likely, with this development of events, Russia will face a period of internal instability, and possibly a gradual disintegration.
BASIC SCENARIOS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVENTS IN RUSSIA IN 2023
Scenario | Key influencing factors (+/-) | Probability of implementation |
Preservation of the current political regime in Russia with a new authoritarian leader | The results of the counterattack of the Armed Forces (the probability of implementing the scenario directly depends on the successes/failures of the Armed Forces) Supplying the Armed Forces with a sufficient number of modern Western weapons necessary for a counterattack Great elite and public support for Putin and his government The army and special services are loyal to Putin and controlled by him The readiness of the Russian population to endure difficulties in connection with the fall in the level of social standards Stress resistance of the Russian economy China's interest in implementing this scenario The US and European partners lack the ability to influence the situation under the current conditions | Today is high |
Preservation of the current political regime in Russia with a new authoritarian leader | The results of the counterattack of the Armed Forces (the probability of implementing the scenario directly depends on the successes/failures of the Armed Forces) Supplying the Armed Forces with a sufficient number of modern Western weapons necessary for a counterattack The interest of the elite in preserving the current political regime even under the leadership of a new authoritarian leader Control of the majority of Russian society through government-controlled means of mass disinformation China's neutral attitude towards the implementation of this scenario The US and European partners lack the ability to influence the situation under the current conditions | average |
The change of the political regime in Russia and the coming to power of a pro-Western liberal government | The results of the counterattack of the Armed Forces (the probability of implementing the scenario directly depends on the successes/failures of the Armed Forces) Supplying the Armed Forces with a sufficient number of modern Western weapons necessary for a successful counterattack The weakness of the opposition, its lack of adequate public support, the only socially legitimate leader of the opposition, financial and organizational resources, The negative attitude of the majority of Russian society towards the opposition It is possible that certain subjects of the Russian Federation may not accept the new pro-Western government Interest of the USA and European partners in the implementation of the scenario China's opposition to the implementation of this scenario | low |
The disintegration of Russia into numerous national and regional entities | The results of the counterattack of the Armed Forces (the probability of implementing the scenario directly depends on the successes/failures of the Armed Forces) Supplying the Armed Forces with a sufficient number of modern Western weapons necessary for a counterattack The presence of internal conflict, which can lead to armed confrontation and civil war The weak elite of national and regional subjects of the Russian Federation, which has not yet realized its interest in building its own statehood Lack of interest of the USA, European partners and China in the implementation of the scenario | low |
SCENARIO FOUR. The disintegration of Russia into numerous national and regional entities.
Today, this version of the development of events looks almost like non-science fiction. However, there are factors that can significantly have an impact on the fact that it would become reality from fiction.
The probability of the mentioned scenario increases significantly in the case of the transfer of hostilities to the territory of Russia, which can lead to political chaos, disorganization of the authorities and further loss of Russian statehood. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the transfer of hostilities to Russian territory, on the contrary, may contribute to the patriotic mobilization of at least part of Russians.
Also, the probability of the implementation of this version of the development of the situation is related to the events that may occur in the case of an intra-elite coup or the formation of a liberal pro-Western government.
Thus, part of the elite, whose influence is directly related to Putin's tenure in office, may not agree to his resignation and take forceful measures to protect the Russian dictator. Already today, among the Russian ruling class, there is an acute conflict between Prigozhin and the Shoigu -Gerasimov group, which rely on the Wagner PMC and the Russian armed forces, respectively.
If Putin is removed from this game, Prigozhin risks losing any influence, even his life will be in question. Therefore, he will protect the current Russian president, using all available resources, in particular, 50 thousand armed and combat-experienced "Wagnerovs". Military actions in Moscow can provoke civil disorder throughout Russia and its disintegration into separate national and regional entities.
In the case of the formation of a pro-Western government, it may not be recognized by individual subjects of the Russian Federation, which will also provoke the disintegration of Russia. It is most likely that it will start from the North Caucasus, as the Information Defence experts have already written about.
At the same time, other factors have a negative impact on the implementation of this version of the development of the political situation in Russia.
In particular, the probability of the collapse of the Russian Federation reduces the lack of formation of the idea of national or regional statehood among representatives of local elites. At the same time, if we recall the history of Ukraine, the communist “group 239”, which was completely oriented towards Moscow, on August 24, 1991, almost entirely voted for the independence of our state.
Against the uncontrolled disintegration of Russia, the United States, China, and European countries, which fear the loss of control over nuclear weapons, civil war, and the export of violence beyond the borders of the Russian Federation, will oppose it.
On the other hand, the collapse of Russia means neutralizationexistential threat to Ukraine, at least in the medium-term perspective .
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The experts of the Information Defence project have analyzed the basic scenarios for the development of events in 2023 for Russia. It is clear that none of them will be implemented in their pure form.
But the probability of their implementation directly depends on us, on Ukraine, on its Armed Forces.
The more convincing our victories will be, the greater the probability that our children and grandchildren will not wake up to alarm signals about a Russian missile attack.
Because there will be no Russia at all.