There are also more radical views: to bring the war to the total, in particular, nuclear disarmament of russia, that is, to its denuclearization - so that Moscow could never threaten nuclear weapons. And although many consider this a fantasy - against the background of the absolutely real possibility of the Kremlin regime to use nuclear weapons, it does not look surreal.
Thus, this war can either "break the neck" of the regime (as defined by Hodges), or give Putin the opportunity to better prepare for a new big, even more devastating and bloodier war. And to allow half of Europe to be captured - because this is the agenda of the dictator.
Indicative, that during a visit to Kyiv in April, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson acknowledged that russia's large-scale war against Ukraine with missile and air strikes was made possible because of the West's overly sluggish and generally inadequate response to russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and its capture of the Crimea. But there is still no definite certainty that the atrocities of the russian fascists in Bucha in the Kyiv region (and in many other Ukrainian cities, including Mariupol, where 10,000 to 22,000 civilians died) became a real watershed in this war. However, it was after getting acquainted with the "results" of Putin's villains that Western partners began to say the word "win" instead of "endure" in the wishes to Ukraine.
One way or another, a new stage of the bloody war is being prepared, which is already called the "Battle for Donbas". Enemy groups, as they say, are on a low start…
"Battle for Donbas": the defining stage of the war
The resumption of the russian offensive is "inevitable." Such predictions were announced by the North Atlantic Alliance on April 12. In particular, NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana, on behalf of the military-political bloc, said that there were signs of "imminent entry into the second stage of this war, which is already very bloody. We are entering the second stage, more complex, different in nature from the first stage, in a much wider area, both in the east, in the Donbass, and in the south, towards the Crimea and Mariupol.
He added that the resumption of hostilities would have a military component, much closer to the classic war, "and not to what we saw in the first six weeks of the war". In this regard, the Official assured that NATO countries will continue to support Ukraine in the confrontation with the russian invader, provide more armor, more equipment, more opportunities.
"If we all have seen Javelin and anti-tank weapons in the first part of the war, this second part of the war will be different in quality, intensity and consistency, so naturally we help Ukraine to prepare," said the NATO leadership representative.
In other words, NATO has acknowledged that by too slow taking and implementation of decisions to strengthen Ukraine with weapons, Putin's beaten faction has in fact been given a chance to recover.
Why is the definition of Alliance experts such? Probably because of the confidence that the previously built echelon defense will make "active, mobile defense" impossible with the use of compact high-precision weapons, as during the first stage of the war. At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers are well aware of the danger of getting involved in linear confrontations, when small contact battles and the use of mosquito strategies will be impossible. Therefore, they are preparing their answer, which most likely will be a mixed tactic that combines both. In this case, the Ukrainian Army is in dire need of so-called heavy weapons, which allows it to inflict damage on the enemy at different borders: at a distance of 100 km or more; at a distance of 20-40 km; directly during a combat collision, that is 0-5 km. Therefore, the urgency of receiving Western military-technical assistance is increasing by several orders.
Frankly, the score is already for the hours - what and when NATO partners will be able to quickly transfer to Ukraine. Now is not the best time to assess the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but the limited damage to columns of the russian Armed Forces, groups and clusters of enemy equipment (including warships) over long distances, on the front, is likely to prove that the leadership of UAF simply will save the impact weapon. Because it is not enough. But the successful defeat of the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet of the russian missile cruiser "Moskva" by the coastal missile system RK-360MС "Neptune" developed by "Luch" Design Bureau, on April 13 had stunning consequences. First, it confirmed the high capabilities of the patriotic Army
and the domestic defense industry: an 186-meter cruiser with a total tonnage of 11,280 tons was de facto shot down by two high-precision missile launches. Secondly, it is an extremely important "missile marker" for the future - a factual confirmation of the importance of the missile shield-sword to deter aggression. Finally, it’s a hint to the West that Ukraine is capable of becoming a powerful partner and a true outpost of the Western world.
By the way, not only the defeat of the cruiser scared the russian federation. Recall, since April 11 the Ministry of Transport of russia undertook to provide interaction with the Ministry of Internal Affairs and FSB for fear of guerrilla war on its own territory, in particular, destruction of the russian railway. Such episodes have spread rapidly from the territory of Belarus (up to 80 cases have been recorded there) and are already being recorded in the territory of the russian federation. As well as a large fire in the border areas near Belgorod - at the local oil depot and ammunition depots.
Ukrainian Intelligence also says there is panic in neighboring regions of russia. Certainly, this is not a large scale. But the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine without hesitation declare their readiness and expediency to transfer military action to enemy territory. Among other things, it is worth mentioning that "unknown" began to destroy the occupiers in Melitopol and have already eliminated about 70 people. In fact, this is a "resistance movement in action." And the practical confirmation that the Military Security Strategy (a new military doctrine) approved a year ago, which enshrines the comprehensive principle of defense organization, is valid. Not the army, not the defense forces, but the entire people of Ukraine resolutely defended the State - this is a real patriotic war against the russian invaders.
At the same time, the situation in Mariupol is really critical. The unification of Units of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade with the Azov Regiment, despite the loss and capture of some soldiers, somewhat strengthened the defense of Mariupol. However, the lack of free human resources needed for the same "battle for Donbas" makes it impossible to effectively unblock Mariupol. And the very area of the front around Izium and Sloviansk, where the Russian enemy is trying to create conditions for the encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, remains dangerous. However, the Ukrainian defenders confidently win the positional war: almost every day they destroy enemy columns, blow up equipment and infrastructure, reduce the number of personnel, and capture iconic trophies.
It worth noting that it was the numerous manifestations of the heroism of the Ukrainian military that significantly pushed the Western partners to act in support of Ukraine and not to ignore the wishes of the Ukrainian authorities.
However, first about the enemy's position.
It is no longer a secret that the Putin regime has significant problems, especially with human resources. It is not easy for the General Staff of the russian federation to replenish its well-worn groups. Although Western sources announced on April 13 Putin's intention to gather five times more troops for the "battle for Donbas" than Ukrainian Defense Forces do, it is extremely difficult to carry out.
For example, it is known for sure about significant problems with the operational reserve, which should provide a massive attack on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Of the 40,000 Syrian mercenaries promised by Bashar al-Assad, hardly more than one thousand arrived - The New York Times reported the arrival of the first contingent of about 300 Syrian mercenaries. The withdrawal of troops from the occupied territories of Georgia and from the 102nd military base in Armenia was not a turning point. Even a three-hour meeting with vassal Lukashenko does not seem to have led to anything - the self-proclaimed president of Belarus fears that he will become a target for his own security forces. And 15-20 thousand unarmed Belarusians are hardly a reinforcement for the russian General Staff.
Therefore, the only real calculations of the Kremlin - for covert mobilization. For example, on April 12, there was information about the transfer of so-called volunteers to Ukraine - in particular, a battalion of about 400 people was formed in the Leningrad region. It consists exclusively of servicemen with combat experience. The Kremlin recruited about 7,000 troops in the previously occupied territories of Donbass. It is difficult to say how much there will be… But as for motivation, there are even more problems in russia.
For example, on April 11, the SSU published intercepted enemy conversations, which indicate a rather deep demotivation of the russian military. In particular, the russian occupiers in Ukraine refuse to go on the offensive and sabotage the orders of the leadership, and in some units the occupiers are getting on their nerves - they are on the verge of rebellion.
Last but not least, meticulous investigations into past crimes and the unexpected confrontation with the effects of globalization, where modern technology makes it possible to identify war criminals, seem to contribute not least to the growing frustration of russian invaders. Many of them now fear both the revenge of Ukrainian defenders and the readiness of the russian authorities to "send them for disposal" on the battlefield.
The appearance of the commander of the military campaign, General Aleksandr Dvornikov, who is called the "Syrian butcher", in particular, for atrocities and the use of chemical weapons, was also somewhat strange. Military experts are not convinced that this decision of the Kremlin can radically change the situation with the management of troops - it, as demonstrated by a dozen filigree defeats near Chornobayivka, failed.
Not everything is good with technique either. The russian federation had to redeploy the repair bases deployed in Belarus to its own territory. However, they clearly do not have time to provide troops in full. The russian tank industry “Uralvagonzavod” has completely stopped due to lack of components. The state defense order in russia is not being fulfilled - the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense has published the relevant documents. It is known that russia is moving to more obsolete weapons. For example, it unpacks obsolete X-35 and X-59 cruise missiles (with a range of 280 and 250 km). On April 13, Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners shot down an enemy Su-25 attack aircraft from a Soviet fleet of aircraft. By the way, it became the 300th anniversary air target of anti-aircraft missile forces, which was shot down since the beginning of a large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Moreover, experts have noted that technological degradation is forcing russian troops to switch to Chinese drones - because the "eagles" do not solve existing problems, russia has begun to use Chinese quadcopters. In addition, it was recently revealed that the russian occupiers began using Canon cameras on existing "eagles" - this fact was very surprising for Ukrainian soldiers.
On April 14 the influential Atlantic Council identified three main problems of the russian Armed Forces: logistics, management and military morale of the troops. If russia's logistics can be significantly improved by increasing the necessary resources from the occupied Crimea, the appointment of General Dvornikov to lead the campaign can hardly be considered a solution to the issue of governance. As for military morale, the trauma of the first stage of this war is incurable - so most analysts believe.
Finally, there are already the results of the sanctions. For example, the head of the Center for Military Legal Research Alexander Musienko
is convinced that russia can no longer continue its production programs for the “Dagger” hypersonic aviation missile system. "Russia is in fact deprived of access to key elements needed for modernization and production of modern weapons," Musienko said. Well, if this is confirmed, the situation will be one step closer to Ukraine's victory.
Thus, the preparation for the defining stage of the war testifies to a certain exhaustion of the russian army and the intention to compensate for the problems of morale and fighting spirit with massive attacks and missile dominance. However, the promptness of Western actions can significantly confuse the Kremlin's cards - this is the story when Putin, motivated by repeated impunity for crimes, can pull the queen of spades.
Western reaction. Will it be timely?
Meanwhile, the West is also preparing for the second stage of the war. First of all, the United States and the United Kingdom are the most consistent. Already in early April, the influential publication The Guardian issued rather harsh warnings of Western partners. But it inadvertently revealed a secret: it was only in April that Western countries began to quietly cross the line they had drawn - regarding the exclusively defensive nature of the weapons they give to the Ukrainian army.
"The question is how big the West's transition to offensive weapons will be. It is also extremely important to ensure that the supply of critical military equipment continues and increases,” said the former Head of British Military Intelligence Phil Osborne.
The publication aptly repeated what Ukrainian politicians and the military had said many times, including President Zelenskyy. At the same time, it became known that the Czech Republic had already sent a dozen Soviet T-72, as well as artillery howitzers and BMP-1. But aid was considered questionable - according to Oryx, the Ukrainian army lost 94 tanks in battles as of early April. So lively discussions began, the key themes of which were not to allow Putin to achieve "success that can be announced" until May 9 - especially for his own society.
It seems that a breakthrough has been achieved. At first, Britain assured the existing decision to hand over powerful anti-ship systems to Ukraine (perhaps as of April 13 such weapons were already in the Navy, because some experts suggested that British systems helped Ukrainian counterparts deal with the cruiser "Moscow"; but we will keep the intrigue to a certain time).
On April 13, the US announced the dispatch of an additional batch of Javelin anti-tank missiles, in addition to another 300 million-package, which already included APKWS laser-guided missile systems and Switchblade 600 killers, which can hit targets within 80 kilometers and can replace the lost Turkish TB2 Bayraktar.
On April 14 it became known that under the aid package, which is worth 800m. dollars Ukrainian Armed Forces will receive 11 Soviet-made Mi-8 / Mi-17 helicopters, 18 howitzers of 155 mm caliber and 40,000 rounds of ammunition, 200 American M113 armored personnel carriers, 500 Javelin missiles and 300 Switchblade barrage drones.
In turn, "breakthroughs" began in Europe. It was after London's decision to provide anti-ship systems on April 13 that the Norwegian Parliament announced the need to hand over to Ukraine modern NASAMS air defense systems (20-40 km long) and the latest Norwegian Naval Strike Missile anti-ship missiles (up to 185 km long). This is a state-of-the-art weapon, which is important to hand over to Kyiv just before the beginning of the active phase of the battle for Donbas. In addition, on April 13, it also became known that the German Parliament had agreed to supply Ukraine with heavy military equipment.
These are just key messages of assistance, the main content of which is to provide it on time.
Security guarantees for Ukraine: between reality and illusions
Can the Kremlin return to the idea of capturing the capital and other major cities of Ukraine? Of course, any weakness or inhibition of the "collective West" in providing Ukraine with adequate tools to fight a powerful enemy will be immediately used to advance deep into Ukraine. Putin is well aware that only the capture of Ukraine can delay the moment of his removal from power and deprivation of physical life. He is afraid of death and loss of power, so he will put pressure on the russian sheep herd to the end. But new lines of defense are already being set up near Kyiv in case of russian troops attacking, taking into account mistakes in the preparation of defense before the start of a large-scale invasion in February.
Military analysts say that the second Moscow campaign in Kyiv is unlikely. Although it cannot be excluded. In the worst-case scenario, russia's exit to the Dnieper is possible. And it’s only under certain conditions…
Most likely, the Russian army will focus on fixing the gains, that is, on laying a land corridor to the Crimea. That would strengthen Moscow's position in the ceasefire talks. But for this, Putin still needs to take Mariupol and try to arrange May 9 there. If Mariupol turns out to be a bone in Putin's throat for the second time since 2014, he could drown. Because it is already approaching the position of the underdog, and in russia this will not be forgiven.
But can the implementation of the best scenario for Ukraine become immediately winning? For example, in the case of the apparent defeat of the Kremlin army? The vast majority of security experts rightly point out that defeating an enemy like russia is unlikely by military means. Unless the number of dead should exceed 60-70 thousand. That’s why changing the political system, at least the elimination of Putin's regime, is really necessary. So, what can happen after the victory of Ukrainian Defense Forces?
Of course, it depends on what kind of victory it is. The brightest and undisputed will be the border crossing on February 23. Because a large-scale counter-offensive operation is an extremely difficult task and can take place only with the strong support of the entire West - both military-technical and political? If Putin is quickly removed from power, the issue of complete cleansing of the whole of Ukraine from the russian occupiers may indeed be raised. Otherwise - the negotiating table and the transfer of the center of gravity to the political plane. Therefore, it is not excluded that as a result of the active hot phase of the war, it will be replaced by the same stage of low-intensity hostilities as in the period from 2014 to 2022. Is it possible to suppress the regime of the Moscow dictator in this case? In fact, it is possible and necessary. But if the whole Western world, with its sanctions, restrictions and Putin's isolation, takes action. And if all the mistakes of the last eight years are taken into account - in the field of guarantees and further rearmament of Ukraine itself.
It is time to point out that many of the partners are already talking about their unwillingness to give up their interests. There is a silent observer China, there is India, which quietly agrees to buy oil from russia, there are Iran and North Korea, there are rather strange European players…
For example, the imposition of an oil embargo across Europe on Russian black gold is, according to economists, 47% of what Russia actually sells.
But even this step is problematic now. That is why Putin's servants are insisting on parity in the talks to allow Moscow a maneuver in the future to put pressure on, for example, France and Germany and get the veto they want to strip it of. The sphere of diplomacy is a dangerous field…
So, it is not surprising that the Pentagon is already carefully studying how long-term assistance can take the russian beast under siege and trap. For example, recently the US Military Agency held consultations with eight of the most powerful US Defense companies, including Raytheon Technologies, Lockheed Martin Corp, Boeing Co, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and L3 Harris Technologies.
Washington's calculations are linked to a far-sighted, well-balanced strategy of struggle, although so far even Biden has not repeated Reagan's words that "we will win and they will lose." His Polish speech contained an emotional statement that Putin should leave, but the White House then long disgruntled from it.
Therefore, there are opinions that russia's war against Ukraine may last for years. This was stated, in particular, by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, speaking on the House Committee on Armed Services. According to Millie, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has created “a dangerous historical turning point… I believe that this is a protracted conflict that will be measured in years. I don't know whether it's possible to talk about decades, but a few years is for sure. I think that the United States, NATO, Ukraine and all its allies and partners will be involved in this for a long time to come".
This is an interesting and difficult turn - evidence that every country that plays on the world stage will care primarily about their own interests. A convincing proof of this is the expectation by Western countries of the results of the first weeks of the war and frank surprise at Ukraine's ability to withstand a powerful enemy. Already after that, there was a supply of weapons and a crazy idea: maybe with the help of Ukraine to put pressure on Putin's extremely dangerous regime for the whole world. In fact, Ukraine has done the main thing - proved not only the ability to be on the world map, but also to achieve its goal. Belief in Ukraine emerged in the West after this faith arose in the Ukrainian nation itself. Probably, that is why the collective intuition of Ukrainians suggests that on May 9, 2022, Putin will be spoiled (and not only by Ukrainians, judging by the pace of return of embassies to Kyiv).
The next battle is for the creation of a powerful, developed Ukraine that will be more attractive to the world than russia was. Ukraine has immense potential. Including defense. Accurate launches of "Neptunes" are symbolic (and there are many other powerful, state-of-the-art technologies) - they inspire Ukraine to be able to win, even if the thorny path is measured in years.
This war, regardless of the formal results of the "bargaining for guarantees", should lead to conclusions. In particular, the main one should be the statement: the key guarantee for Ukraine is not in the capitals of other states, but in its own. Ukraine has a large number of modern technologies that are not inferior to Western ones in certain areas. These are new cutting-edge solutions in creating deadly autonomous weapons. Namely: in Ukraine, the development of tactical strike drones is nearing completion - as a helicopter that can operate a swarm of drones, and a number of barrage ammunition, that is, kamikaze drones. There are powerful operational-tactical and operational-strategic projects, not worse than the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and TAI Anka. There are already ground-based robotic systems, from which the first unit of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was created - by the way, with elements of the introduction of artificial intelligence. There are powerful means of electronic warfare, which, as it turned out, are slightly better than the captured trophies complexes of Electronic Warfare troops of russian AF. There are also SAM projects that may not be worse than the US-Norwegian NASAMS, as requested by President Zelenskyy.
It is already possible to repeat the conclusion that the asymmetric force of using relatively inexpensive defense technologies in Ukraine is valid. And the war significantly accelerated this process. We need smart rearmament and strengthening of defense potential! This is where the capacity of the partners will be used to the maximum, but the potential of the own defense-industrial complex will not be ignored. Because only Ukrainian decisions in the field of security and defense can guarantee Ukraine unshakable.
