The aim of the strike remains unchanged — to break the will of Ukraine’s population to continue resisting and to conceal Russia’s own weaknesses, particularly its inability to defend its own territory, including the capital, from strikes by Ukraine’s Defence Forces.
The Air Force Command reported the use of 70 missiles in the attack (6 hypersonic “Zircon” missiles, 34 ballistic “Iskander”/S-400 missiles, and 30 cruise “Iskander”/Kh-101 missiles), as well as 611 strike UAVs (“Shahed”, “Gerbera”, “Italmas”). Decoy drones “Parodiia” and “BanderoL” missile-drones were also used.
Air defence forces intercepted 5 “Zircon” missiles, 15 “Iskander”/S-400 missiles, 30 “Iskander”/Kh-101 missiles, and 582 UAVs. Unfortunately, 20 ballistic missiles and 27 UAVs struck 42 targets, while debris fell in 12 locations. At least 53 people were injured and 11 were killed. Strikes hit residential, energy, and educational infrastructure. In Kyiv alone, 140,000 people were left without electricity.
Read alsoAttack on Kyiv Pechersk Lavra: How Dormition Cathedral burned and what was saved
In Kharkiv, Russia used its well-known brutal tactic of striking again, hitting emergency rescue services that had arrived at the site of the initial attack. Five rescuers were killed.
Targets in Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Sumy, Zaporizhzhya, Donetsk, and Mykolayiv regions were also struck.
Russia is evolving its tactics. According to an assessment by the Air Force Command, as reported by spokesperson Colonel Yurii Ihnat, the 14–15 June attack differed from recent ones in that Russia did not use Kalibr cruise missiles, replacing them with Iskander-K cruise missiles. Drones and missiles attacked from different directions to ensure that both direct hits and debris caused destruction. UAVs were operating at lower-than-usual altitudes. High-speed jet-powered drones were also used, making interception more difficult.
A positive note for air defence is that all cruise missiles were intercepted this time, thanks in part to the skill of Ukrainian F-16 fighter pilots.
Another feature of the strike was the choice of targets in Kyiv, Dnipro and Kharkiv: the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, the Dovzhenko Film Studio, the Dnipro House of Organ and Chamber Music, and the Kharkiv Art Museum. UNESCO condemned the strike on the Lavra.
The spokesperson of Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs circulated so-called “confirmed reports” in the media claiming that a Ukrainian Patriot interceptor missile allegedly struck the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra. In reality, the fragments were from a Geran-2 UAV — but such details appear to be of little importance to Moscow.
Overall, after striking the Lavra, Russia immediately launched a large-scale disinformation campaign, attempting to justify mass attacks on cultural sites. It claimed that “Ukrainians themselves shelled the Lavra in order to provoke Russian missile forces into a retaliatory strike.” This is yet another absurd narrative aimed at deflecting accusations of violations of international humanitarian law regarding the protection of religious buildings and cultural heritage sites. Russia has also claimed that Ukrainian forces set up a drone workshop inside the Lavra.
Attention then turns to the prospects of continued missile terror by Russia.
The adversary’s defence-industrial complex is increasing production rates and upgrading its ballistic missiles and UAVs. Available information suggests that monthly missile production already exceeds the monthly production of Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missiles in the United States.
Senior researcher at the Ukrainian State Research Institute for Arms Testing and Certification, Colonel Oleksandr Zaruba, stated that Russia’s industry produces approximately 40–50 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 60–70 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, and around 10 Iskander-K cruise missiles per month.
Meanwhile, the US defence industry produces around 600 Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missiles per year, which is roughly 50 missiles per month.
Read alsoPatriot missiles in short supply: how Ukraine will counter ballistic threats
Russian engineers are actively integrating technical solutions used in North Korea’s KN-23 ballistic missile into the Iskander-M system in order to increase production capacity. On the one hand, the so-called “nuclear superpower” has reached a point where it is borrowing technologies from North Korea; on the other hand, this does not make the situation any easier. Iskander-M ballistic missiles have reportedly gained the ability to deploy decoy interference measures designed to overload air defence radar systems.
There is also information suggesting that Russia is working on an upgraded version of the Iskander-M, referred to as Iskander-1000, with a reported range of up to 1,000 km.
The warhead of the Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile has reportedly been doubled in size. Air defence representatives note that Kh-101 missiles observed during the 14–15 June strike were equipped with automatic thermal and radar decoys, complicating radar tracking during interception efforts. It is also suggested that the Kh-101 may carry an onboard digital terrain map and scan terrain during flight, significantly improving strike accuracy.
Russia is also improving both the technical aspects and the tactics of UAV deployment. There are attempts to launch drones from tactical aircraft in order to extend strike depth up to 1,000 km and further complicate Ukrainian air defence operations.
All of this activity underscores the critical importance of Western assistance in maintaining the combat capability of Ukraine’s air defence forces. Russia continues to systematically employ Kh-101, Iskander-M, Iskander-K missiles, and various types of strike UAVs, including Shahed/Geran drones, adapting their technologies to increase both the scale of attacks and the resulting damage.
The Patriot surface-to-air missile system, virtually the only effective defence against ballistic missiles, remains critical for Ukraine’s air defence architecture.
