Beijing can help Russia in the war with Ukraine or press Vladimir Putin to agree to a compromise. However, most likely, it won’t do either, Bloomberg reports.
“Any hopes that U.S. President Joe Biden might persuade his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to help stop the war in Ukraine should probably be put aside. China wants to see an early end to the conflict. But it won’t use its leverage to bring one about.” - Bloomberg notes.
Support for Putin's military efforts could lead to an immediate confrontation with the West, for which China is not ready for, according to Bloomberg. After all, despite poor relations with the United States, with Europe and Japan, China still needs access to their markets: they account for 52% of China's total foreign trade in 2021, compared to 3.8% of Russia.
China is also heavily reliant on advanced Western technologies, including microchips, and its big companies and banks can't afford to be cut off from the dollar yet.
“At the same time, Xi surely feels he cannot abandon Putin, - Bloomberg writes. - An attempt to pressure the Russian leader to compromise quickly might fail, which would be a huge loss of face for Beijing. Or it might succeed but antagonize Putin and even weaken him at home so much that his hold on power is threatened.”
With no good options, China’s only strategy for now is to do what it can to help Russia without crossing U.S. red lines, the agency said.
“What seemed a brilliant move a few short weeks ago increasingly looks like a terrible strategic decision, - Bloomberg says. - Instead of benefiting from Russia-U.S. tensions, China finds itself at the mercy of events and its long game in grave peril. Whoever wins in Ukraine, China has already suffered irreparable losses.”
We will remind, on March 19, U.S. President Biden during a two-hour conversation warned Chinese leader Xi Jinping about the consequences that will have for Beijing to provide financial or military assistance to Russia for its aggression against Ukraine.
Earlier, the Financial Times reported that Russia had asked China for military assistance to continue its invasion of Ukraine. The FT also claims that the US has informed allies in Europe and Asia that China has "shown a willingness" to provide Russia with military support in its invasion of Ukraine. This information was subsequently confirmed by U.S. officials, adding that Washington will try to persuade Beijing not to interfere on Russia's side.