A targeted strike or accidental stupidity?
Russia did indeed strike directly at the Druzhba pipeline, confirms Mykhaylo Honchar. At the same time, the expert on international energy and security relations notes that Ukraine’s oil transportation infrastructure has repeatedly been targeted by Russian drones and missiles. Since 2022, the Kremlin has attempted to strike at least one major pumping station, as well as port oil facilities.
On 27 January, Russia damaged one of the key links in the oil supply chain to Hungary and Slovakia — the Brody linear production and dispatch station. Without it, pumping through the pipeline is impossible. This station is the most powerful in Ukraine. It was built in the 1960s and consists of nearly two dozen tanks. It also houses the largest oil tank in the country, with a capacity of 75,000 cubic metres. It has a double-walled structure and a floating roof, ensuring a high level of environmental and fire safety.
In 2019, Ukrtransnafta reported a major renovation of the Brody station. The work lasted eighteen months, during which the equipment was upgraded and the premises repaired. Most of the work was carried out without stopping the pumping of oil.
Mykhaylo Honchar believes that Ukraine should have stopped the transit of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia long ago. The expert recalls that pumping Russian gas did not protect Ukraine’s gas transmission system from Russian attacks. Something similar could happen to the Druzhba pipeline.
"If the Kremlin has decided that the priority is to destroy Ukraine's oil transport infrastructure, then commercial interests and the interests of the Hungarian satrapy become deeply secondary," says Mykhaylo Honchar.
Several versions of why Russian missiles or drones struck the Druzhba infrastructure should be considered, according to Andrian Prokip, an energy expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future.
First, the Russians could have deliberately targeted the production and dispatch station in order to once again blame Ukraine for stopping oil transit. Second, we should not rule out the possibility that the attack was accidental.
"It should be remembered that Russia is actually very dependent on supplies to Hungary and Slovakia via this oil pipeline. This is because other supplies are subject to sanctions. Although Russia is quite successful in circumventing them," says Andrian Prokip.
The Russian strike on Brody was definitely not accidental, says Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy programmes at the Razumkov Centre. He explains that with this attack, the Kremlin may have been trying to harm not its friends in Budapest or Bratislava, but Ukraine itself. It is no coincidence that the Russians directed the drone at the largest oil reservoir in our country.
“My version of events is as follows: most likely, Ukrainian oil was stored there for export to Poland — transhipment and further delivery by rail, as there is no pipeline connection to Poland. Why is this done? Because there is no oil refining in Ukraine; the Russians destroyed everything, including the Kremenchuk oil refinery,” explains Volodymyr Omelchenko.
Analyst Oleksandr Sirenko, on the other hand, believes that “any resource” could have been stored in Brody. The expert recommends waiting for official information.
At the time of the strike, the tank was half empty, says energy industry expert Hennadiy Ryabtsev. However, a significant amount of oil was still caught in the fire. He immediately clarifies that there is no threat of a fuel shortage on the Ukrainian market. If necessary, dealers will be able to find additional supplies on the European market.
In addition, the state always maintains a 20-day supply of fuel. This is a strategic operational reserve regulated by law.
“Although there were about 35,000 tonnes there and, most likely, this reserve has been completely lost, the attack will not affect the overall price level. One thing concerns me: why was there no firefighting team on site? One Shahed drone flew in and was not shot down. And what about the engineering protection? There is such a large reservoir there that it is clearly visible from the air,” says Hennadiy Ryabtsev.
The expert suggests that the strike is unlikely to significantly affect Russian oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia. At most, it may cause a temporary technological shutdown.
Hungary’s telling silence
Neither Hungarian officials nor Slovak authorities responded to the Russian attack in any way during the 24 hours following the incident. For example, in August, when the Druzhba oil pipeline was shut down, the governments of Hungary and Slovakia reacted immediately. Mostly with curses and threats directed at Ukraine. This time, even the Hungarian propaganda machine controlled by the Fidesz party has remained silent.
“As of late Tuesday evening, the consequences were still being dealt with. I am not sure that the pipeline will be fully restored so quickly. I think it is currently shut down because it is dangerous to operate. The Russians have hit the transit section before. It is difficult to comment on the Kremlin’s logic. I think it was a mistake. They saw a target — an infrastructure facility in the oil and gas sector — and struck,” says Oleksandr Sirenko, an analyst at the Naftorink consulting agency.
At the same time, Moscow could have offered Hungary and Slovakia other supply routes, suggests Mykhaylo Honchar. For example, transporting fuel from the Black Sea to the Adriatic coast and then by pipeline through the Balkans. In fact, both Hungary and Slovakia have alternative oil supply routes, and there is no shortage of sellers on the market.
However, the governments of Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico stubbornly refuse to stop co-operating with Russia. There is a simple explanation: the Kremlin grants these two countries substantial discounts on resources, which, according to various sources, can reach 25 per cent. Neither Fico nor Orbán would receive such terms from other suppliers. It is not difficult to understand what they are doing for Moscow in exchange for the discount.
“One could go into politics and assume that the Russians sent their ‘greetings’ not to us, but to the Slovaks and Hungarians. There is no official data, but I understand that the strike affected the area responsible for transit to Slovakia. What, who and to whom they wanted to say — these are only assumptions,” says Oleksandr Sirenko.
Technically, Ukraine has no difficulty stopping the transit of Russian oil to Hungary. This is entirely a political issue, and the Ukrainian government explains the continuation of pumping by legal considerations. Officials say that Ukraine could face serious lawsuits and fines in response. In addition, stopping transit would allegedly violate several important international agreements with the European Union, including the Association Agreement.
“This document provides grounds for stopping transit. Ukraine’s motivation is to protect national security. If we are afraid of lawsuits and penalties, then we need to reduce pumping to a minimum. This can be done in a careful way,” argues Mykhaylo Honchar.
The contract for pumping Russian oil through Ukraine is valid until 2030, and the benefits of this agreement for the state are highly questionable. Russia pays up to $300 million for transit. In return, it earns approximately $6 billion, according to estimates by analysts at the Razumkov Centre.
It should not be forgotten that oil transit infrastructure is energy-intensive. At a time of severe shortages, Ukraine has to spend electricity to ensure the pumping of Russian fuel.
“There are no sanctions on deliveries through this pipeline. Accordingly, Kyiv is trying to adhere to the same sanctions regime applied by the European Commission. That is the official explanation from the Ukrainian side for continuing transit,” says Andrian Prokip.
In the summer, deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline were temporarily halted. At that time, the Ukrainian Defence Forces carried out successful strikes on Russia’s oil infrastructure. In particular, major pumping stations were attacked. The suspension of transit caused hysteria in the Hungarian and Slovak governments. Ultimately, supplies were resumed.
Viktor Orbán’s regime depends on Russian oil
Russian oil is one of the key factors enabling Viktor Orbán’s party to retain power. The resource is purchased by the Hungarian company MOL, in which the state holds a significant stake and exercises major influence. The company owns several oil refineries in Hungary and Slovakia.
In total, Hungary and Slovakia purchase 10–11 million tonnes of oil from Russia annually. Previously, the Czech Republic was the third-largest buyer. However, last year it refused to continue working with the Kremlin and now obtains oil through alternative channels.
Trade with Russia generally remains profitable for Hungary and Slovakia. However, last year oil sales volumes still fell by about 14 per cent, according to calculations by the Naftorink consulting agency. Despite the decline, Hungary and Slovakia remain critically dependent on supplies from Russia of their own choosing. It was these two countries that forced through an exemption from EU sanctions in 2022. The European Commission allowed Hungary and Slovakia to temporarily receive Russian oil via pipelines.
Co-operation with Russia allows the government in Budapest to maintain some of the lowest fuel prices. It also enables the export of petrol and diesel to other countries and the receipt of large sums for so-called social projects. More precisely, this money is used to buy voters’ loyalty ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for later this year. For this reason, Orbán is unwilling to give up such a lucrative oil lifeline.
“If Ukraine does not stop transit now, I do not know what else must happen for it to stop. I see no arguments in favour of continuing pumping at all. Russian oil through Druzhba is Moscow’s corrupt financing of Orbán and his party,” believes Volodymyr Omelchenko.